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16 Sep 2018

SHARE MARKET--What are the best stocks for 2018(September) short and long-term?



Winter is Coming …… and so are the MP elections by year end and mega elections in 2019.
Now which company benefits the most during the elections its none other than the printing media or newspapers. The reason is 60% of the crowd especially the one’s who vote still read newspaper. 70% of eligible voters in age group 18–24 do not vote that’s the sad irony.
One of my favorite company in this sector is worlds largest read daily news paper Jagran Prakashan.
Subsidiaries of the Company
Radio City 91.1FM
Radio City, a part of Music Broadcast Limited (MBL) is a subsidiary of Jagran Prakashan Ltd. Radio City is the first and oldest private FM radio broadcaster in India with over 15 years of expertise in the radio industry. Amongst the private radio stations, Radio City has consistently been the number one radio station in terms of average listenership share in Bengaluru and Mumbai with 24.1% and 17.2% respectively

Midday
The newspaper is owned by Mid Day Infomedia Limited, a subsidiary of Jagran Prakashan Limited, a publishing house listed on the BSE and NSE
Mid-Day is a mainstream newspaper in compact format that carries the following sections from Monday to Saturday:
·         Local news: This is the stated key focus of the newspaper
·         National/International news
·         Lifestyle
·         Films
·         Sports

Some Highlights

Jagran Publication covers 50% of the 543 constituencies and 92% of all parliamentary constituency especially the Hindi Belt.

The newspaper is available in different languages in 13 states in 5 languages and is world’s largest read daily.

Now lets talk about the financial health of the company.
Fundamental Analysis
The company has a modest P/E of 11 whereas industry average stands around 12
Pros
Company has reduced debt.
Company is virtually debt free.
Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 19.18
Promoters have increased stake.
Cons
The profit growth has declined by 12% on QOQ basis that’s due to more spending by the advertisers on the digital platforms like Facebook,Twitter and Google.
But the reach of this digital media is good for targeting youths but not for the majority of the voters who are still not comfortable with digital consumption they enjoy watching videos and using Whatsapp. Reality is none of us even watch the ads as soon as they appear we search for the close button ? Don’t we ?
This is where company takes a lead through print media where it is leader in print media advertisements. Hence I see a potential in the company keeping in mind upcoming elections and other plans which company has as shared in their Earning conference Call
Technical Analysis
Even after being the market leader and having negligible debts the stock has been beaten down badly and seems to be taking support around 120 levels.
The stock has shown signs of reversal as can be seen from Bullish Divergence in OBV.
Verge of MACD crossover
Bullish divergence seen in OBV
RSI stochastic has already given a crossover after coming out of oversold zone.

Conclusion
A very respectable family and management having 60% + holding and increasing the stake in the company which has also reduced a debt of 160 crores last year shows the positive cash flow and positive prospects of the company.
Media sector stocks to remain in focus owing to upcoming elections and I am expecting the EPS to improve by 30–40% of all good media stocks.
One can accumulate Jagran Prakashan in the support zone of 115-125 levels and if manages to cross 135 we may see 200+ levels soon.
Please do upvote if you liked the analysis it motivates me to write even more answers like this. Thanks in Advance !!!
My final word before you take decision please consult your Analyst for final decision. Good luck.


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